18 May 2011

When the Hurricane Drought Ends

The United States is currently in the midst of a remarkable streak. The figure above shows the number of days in between intense hurricane landfalls (S/S Category 3-4-5).  As of June 1st, the start of the 2011 hurricane season that streak will have reached 2,046 days the third longest on record, surpassed only by the 2,136 days between landfalls of October 11,1909 and August 17,1915 and the 2,231 days between September 8,1900 and October 18, 1906. The data comes from the ICAT Damage Estimator.  I'd be surprised if the US went through another hurricane season without an intense hurricane landfall, simply based on the well-tested methodology that says good luck can't last forever.

1 comment:

  1. I have yet to see any reports suggesting that global warming REDUCES the likelihood of severe hurricanes hitting land.

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