25 August 2010

Season-Long EPL Prediction Contest

This post is for the true football fanatics.  I am happy to host a season-long English Premier League prediction contest, because it is fun, but also because it gives us some more data to work with in the ongoing discussion of skill in forecasts.  (And yes, I have a post on the octopus in the works;-)

To play you simply need to add a comment to this post with your predicted end of season rankings -- 1 to 20 -- for the EPL.  The benchmark for skill will be the transfer payments made for each team as shown in the figure above -- this is our naive forecast.

The scoring for the contest will be a skill score based on the mean squared error of your prediction as compared to the naive prediction.  There will also be bonus points awarded for correctly identifying Champions League and Europa League teams as well as the three relegated teams.  The prize for the most skillful prediction will be a signed copy of The Climate Fix.

The season has already started , so you have some data to work with.  I'll consider any forecasts made before the first game kicks off on Saturday, September 11, which means that about 10% of the season will already be in the books.

25 comments:

jae said...

Why don't you ascribe to real "FOOTBALL," rather than this queer old-style stuff?

Adrian said...

01. Chelsea
02. Man Utd
03. Tottenham
04. Arsenal
05. Man City
06. Liverpool
07. Aston Villa
08. Newcastle
09. Everton
10. Fulham
11. Bolton
12. Birmingham
13. Blackburn
14. Sunderland
15. West Ham
16. Wolves
17. West Brom

Relgated:
18. Stoke
19. Blackpool
20. Wigan

Champions League: Bayern Munich
Europa League: Liverpool

Roger Pielke, Jr. said...

-1-jae

Thanks, I do plenty of ascribing, don't you worry ;-)

eric144 said...

"Thanks, I do plenty of ascribing, don't you worry ;-)"

That's why they hate you so much :-)


I will subscribe later, but for British football fans, premier league highlights are on iplayer every Tuesday and individual games are on Yahoo from Monday (roughly).

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/football/premier-league/video/

eric144 said...

Both of those are new this season by the way.

I like interactive everything. Stoke vs Wolves I can live without as a live streamed experience.

Roger Pielke, Jr. said...

-4-eric144

Thanks ... neither BBC nor Eurosport available in the US, but we do have ESPN3 for streaming ...

Craig 1st said...

Thanks to Adrian for making the list to borrow from.

;)

01. Arsenal
02. Chelsea
03. Man Utd
04. Man City
05. Tottenham
06. Newcastle Liverpool
07. Aston Villa
08. Liverpool
09. Everton
10. Bolton
11. Fulham
12. Birmingham
13. West Ham
14. Sunderland
15. Blackburn
16. Wolves
17. West Brom
18. Stoke
19. Blackpool
20. Wigan

Craig 1st said...

correction: my #6 s/b Newcastle, not Newcastle Liverpool.

sandbarrs said...

01. Man Utd
02. Man City
03. Chelsea
04. Tottenham
05. Arsenal
06. Liverpool
07. Fulham
08. Everton
09. Newcastle
10. Aston Villa
11. Bolton
12. Blackburn
13. Sunderland
14. Birmingham
15. West Ham
16. Wolves
17. Stoke
18. West Brom
19. Blackpool
20. Wigan

Champions League: Barcelona
Europa League: Juventus

Thanks..this should be fun!

Craig 1st said...

I wish to add, Go Gunners!!!! EIE!!!

Craig 1st said...

Now there's a team called the Arsenal,
The greatest of them all,
And we will always support them,
Whether they rise or fall, or fall!

So we'll drink, drink, drink together,
In praise of the AFC,
Drink, drink, drink together,
In praise of the AFC.

Fulham can stay at the Cottage
Southampton can stay at the Dell
And as for Tottenham Hotspur
They can go to hell, to hell

So we'll drink, drink, drink together,
In praise of the AFC,
Drink, drink, drink together,
In praise of the AFC

Mark said...

I predict they will finish in the order:

1 Chelsea
2 Man Utd
3 Arsenal
4 Tottenham
5 Man City
6 Aston Villa
7 Liverpool
8 Everton
9 Birmingham
10 Blackburn
11 Stoke City
12 Fulham
13 Sunderland
14 Bolton
15 Wolves
16 Wigan
17 Newcastle
18 Blackpool
19 West Ham
20 West Bromich

It's a relatively naive prediction mind you.

Ian Blanchard said...

With no particular team bias, and judging from the quality of performances in the first few matches of the season, my best guess is:

1 Chelsea
2 Man Utd
3 Arsenal
4 Man City
5 Tottenham
6 Liverpool
7 Everton
8 Aston Villa
9 Fulham
10 Blackburn
11 Birmingham
12 Stoke City
13 Newcastle
14 Bolton
15 Sunderland
16 Wolves
17 Blackpool
18 West Ham
19 Wigan
20 West Bromwich

Confidence in the prediction?
Top 3 I'm fairly confident of having completely right (>50%)

Places 4-8: More confident than not that I've the right teams, but not necessarily the right order.

Places 9-16: You could make any random list of the teams in these positions and have an equal chance of getting it right.

Places 17 to 20: Of those, I'm most confident Blackpool and Wigan will be right down there - perhaps it's just my soft side that wants to see Blackpool stay up. Both West Brom and the Hammers could be fine if they pick up a few results and get confident, but haven't shown any signs of that so far.

eric144 said...

I admit to being a bit Man U inclined (not a way to win a popularity contest)

01. Man Utd
02. Chelsea
03. Arsenal
04. Man City
05. Tottenham
06. Liverpool
07. Everton
08. Aston Villa
09. Blackburn
10. Sunderland
11. Bolton
12. Birmingham
13. Fulham
14. Stoke
15. Newcastle
16. Wigan
17. Wolves

Relgated:
18. West Ham
19. West Brom
20. Blackpool

Champions League Barcelona
Europa League Atlético de Madrid

perransounds said...

Early guess, now the transfer window is closed.

01. Chelsea
02. Man U
03. Arsenal
04. Tottenham
05. Liverpool
06. Man City
07. Stoke
08. Everton
09. Aston Villa
10. Fulham
11. Newcastle
12. Blackburn
13. Wigan
14. Birmingham
15. Sunderland
16. Bolton
17. Wolves
18. West Brom
19. West Ham
20. Blackpool

Cuuumme on ya Potters

faithandenvironment said...

01. Chelsea
02. Man U
03. Arsenal
04. Liverpool
05. Man City
06. Tottenham
07. Aston Villa
08. Birmingham
09. Fulham
10. Everton
11. Newcastle
12. Bolton
13. Sunderland
14. West Ham
15. Wigan
16. Blackburn
17. Wolves
18. Stoke
19. West Brom
20. Blackpool

n-g said...

1. Man U
2. Chelsea
3. Man City
4. Arsenal
5. Tottenham
6. Everton
7. Liverpool
8. Aston Villa
9. Birmingham
10. Newcastle
11. Fulham
12. Bolton
13. Sunderland
14. Stoke
15. Blackburn
16. Wolves
17. Blackpool
18. West Brom
19. West Ham
20. Wigan

Max Boykoff said...

01. Chelsea
02. Man City
03. Arsenal
04. Man Utd
05. Tottenham
06. Liverpool
07. Everton
08. Newcastle
09. Birmingham
10. Sunderland
11. Fulham
12. Aston Villa
13. Stoke
14. Blackburn
15. Bolton
16. West Brom
17. West Ham
18. Wigan
19. Wolves
20. Blackpool

P.S. GO CHELSEA!

GSW said...

01. Chelsea
02. Man Utd
03. Man City
04. Arsenal
05. Tottenham
06. Liverpool
07. Aston Villa
08. Everton
09. Bolton
10. Birmingham
11. Fulham
12. Newcastle
13. West Brom
14. Sunderland
15. Wigan
16. Wolves
17. West Ham
18. Stoke
19. Blackburn
20. Blackpool

emowatt48 said...

1 Chelsea
2 Man United
3 Man City
4 Arsenal
5 Aston Villa
6 Newcastle
7 Tottenham
8 Bolton
9 Liverpool
10 Sunderland
11 Birmingham
12 Everton
13 Fulham
14 Wolves
15 West Ham
16 Blackburn
17 Stoke
18 Wigan
19 Blackpool
20 West Brom

Roger Pielke, Jr. said...

01. Arsenal
02. Chelsea
03. Man City
04. Man Utd
05. Tottenham
06. Everton
07. Aston Villa
08. Liverpool
09. Newcastle
10. Birmingham
11. Fulham
12. Sunderland
13. Bolton
14. Stoke
15. West Ham
16. Wolves
17. Blackburn
18. West Brom
19. Blackpool
20. Wigan

Reiner Grundmann said...

01. Chelsea
02. Arsenal
03. Tottenham
04. Man Utd
05. Man City
06. Everton
07. Liverpool
08. Birmingham
09. Aston Villa
10. Newcastle
11. Fulham
12. West Ham
13. Bolton
14. Blackpool
15. Sunderland
16. Wigan
17. Blackburn
18. West Brom
19. Stoke
20. Wolves

Lu said...

If the fact that Man City spent the most money meant they would win the title I would be one very happy supporter. But alas, money in this case appears to mean little. Goodbye Bellamy and Ireland! I will miss you.

01. Chelsea
02. Man Utd
03. Liverpool
04. Tottenham
05. Arsenal
06. Aston Villa
07. Everton
08. Man City
09. Newcastle
10. Birmingham
11. Fulham
12. Sunderland
13. Bolton
14. West Ham
15. Blackpool
16. Blackburn
17. West Brom
18. Wigan
19. Stoke
20. Wolves

bernie said...

01. Chelsea
02. Man Utd
03. Man City
04. Tottenham
05. Aston Villa
06. Arsenal
07. Liverpool
08. Everton
09. Fulham
10. Newcastle
11. Bolton
12. Birmingham
13. Blackburn
14. Sunderland
15. Stoke
16. Blackpool
17. Wolves
18. West Ham
19. West Brom
20. Wigan

Maher S. Hoque said...

1. Chelsea
2. Manchester United
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Tottenham
6. Aston Villa
7. Everton
8. Manchester City
9. Bolton
10. Wigan
11. Fulham
12. Stoke
13. West Ham
14. Sunderland
15. Newcastle
16. Blackburn
17. West Brom
18. Birmingham
19. Blackpool
20. Wolves

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