25 August 2010

Season-Long EPL Prediction Contest

This post is for the true football fanatics.  I am happy to host a season-long English Premier League prediction contest, because it is fun, but also because it gives us some more data to work with in the ongoing discussion of skill in forecasts.  (And yes, I have a post on the octopus in the works;-)

To play you simply need to add a comment to this post with your predicted end of season rankings -- 1 to 20 -- for the EPL.  The benchmark for skill will be the transfer payments made for each team as shown in the figure above -- this is our naive forecast.

The scoring for the contest will be a skill score based on the mean squared error of your prediction as compared to the naive prediction.  There will also be bonus points awarded for correctly identifying Champions League and Europa League teams as well as the three relegated teams.  The prize for the most skillful prediction will be a signed copy of The Climate Fix.

The season has already started , so you have some data to work with.  I'll consider any forecasts made before the first game kicks off on Saturday, September 11, which means that about 10% of the season will already be in the books.

25 comments:

  1. Why don't you ascribe to real "FOOTBALL," rather than this queer old-style stuff?

    ReplyDelete
  2. 01. Chelsea
    02. Man Utd
    03. Tottenham
    04. Arsenal
    05. Man City
    06. Liverpool
    07. Aston Villa
    08. Newcastle
    09. Everton
    10. Fulham
    11. Bolton
    12. Birmingham
    13. Blackburn
    14. Sunderland
    15. West Ham
    16. Wolves
    17. West Brom

    Relgated:
    18. Stoke
    19. Blackpool
    20. Wigan

    Champions League: Bayern Munich
    Europa League: Liverpool

    ReplyDelete
  3. -1-jae

    Thanks, I do plenty of ascribing, don't you worry ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Thanks, I do plenty of ascribing, don't you worry ;-)"

    That's why they hate you so much :-)


    I will subscribe later, but for British football fans, premier league highlights are on iplayer every Tuesday and individual games are on Yahoo from Monday (roughly).

    http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/football/premier-league/video/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Both of those are new this season by the way.

    I like interactive everything. Stoke vs Wolves I can live without as a live streamed experience.

    ReplyDelete
  6. -4-eric144

    Thanks ... neither BBC nor Eurosport available in the US, but we do have ESPN3 for streaming ...

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks to Adrian for making the list to borrow from.

    ;)

    01. Arsenal
    02. Chelsea
    03. Man Utd
    04. Man City
    05. Tottenham
    06. Newcastle Liverpool
    07. Aston Villa
    08. Liverpool
    09. Everton
    10. Bolton
    11. Fulham
    12. Birmingham
    13. West Ham
    14. Sunderland
    15. Blackburn
    16. Wolves
    17. West Brom
    18. Stoke
    19. Blackpool
    20. Wigan

    ReplyDelete
  8. correction: my #6 s/b Newcastle, not Newcastle Liverpool.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 01. Man Utd
    02. Man City
    03. Chelsea
    04. Tottenham
    05. Arsenal
    06. Liverpool
    07. Fulham
    08. Everton
    09. Newcastle
    10. Aston Villa
    11. Bolton
    12. Blackburn
    13. Sunderland
    14. Birmingham
    15. West Ham
    16. Wolves
    17. Stoke
    18. West Brom
    19. Blackpool
    20. Wigan

    Champions League: Barcelona
    Europa League: Juventus

    Thanks..this should be fun!

    ReplyDelete
  10. I wish to add, Go Gunners!!!! EIE!!!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Now there's a team called the Arsenal,
    The greatest of them all,
    And we will always support them,
    Whether they rise or fall, or fall!

    So we'll drink, drink, drink together,
    In praise of the AFC,
    Drink, drink, drink together,
    In praise of the AFC.

    Fulham can stay at the Cottage
    Southampton can stay at the Dell
    And as for Tottenham Hotspur
    They can go to hell, to hell

    So we'll drink, drink, drink together,
    In praise of the AFC,
    Drink, drink, drink together,
    In praise of the AFC

    ReplyDelete
  12. I predict they will finish in the order:

    1 Chelsea
    2 Man Utd
    3 Arsenal
    4 Tottenham
    5 Man City
    6 Aston Villa
    7 Liverpool
    8 Everton
    9 Birmingham
    10 Blackburn
    11 Stoke City
    12 Fulham
    13 Sunderland
    14 Bolton
    15 Wolves
    16 Wigan
    17 Newcastle
    18 Blackpool
    19 West Ham
    20 West Bromich

    It's a relatively naive prediction mind you.

    ReplyDelete
  13. With no particular team bias, and judging from the quality of performances in the first few matches of the season, my best guess is:

    1 Chelsea
    2 Man Utd
    3 Arsenal
    4 Man City
    5 Tottenham
    6 Liverpool
    7 Everton
    8 Aston Villa
    9 Fulham
    10 Blackburn
    11 Birmingham
    12 Stoke City
    13 Newcastle
    14 Bolton
    15 Sunderland
    16 Wolves
    17 Blackpool
    18 West Ham
    19 Wigan
    20 West Bromwich

    Confidence in the prediction?
    Top 3 I'm fairly confident of having completely right (>50%)

    Places 4-8: More confident than not that I've the right teams, but not necessarily the right order.

    Places 9-16: You could make any random list of the teams in these positions and have an equal chance of getting it right.

    Places 17 to 20: Of those, I'm most confident Blackpool and Wigan will be right down there - perhaps it's just my soft side that wants to see Blackpool stay up. Both West Brom and the Hammers could be fine if they pick up a few results and get confident, but haven't shown any signs of that so far.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I admit to being a bit Man U inclined (not a way to win a popularity contest)

    01. Man Utd
    02. Chelsea
    03. Arsenal
    04. Man City
    05. Tottenham
    06. Liverpool
    07. Everton
    08. Aston Villa
    09. Blackburn
    10. Sunderland
    11. Bolton
    12. Birmingham
    13. Fulham
    14. Stoke
    15. Newcastle
    16. Wigan
    17. Wolves

    Relgated:
    18. West Ham
    19. West Brom
    20. Blackpool

    Champions League Barcelona
    Europa League Atlético de Madrid

    ReplyDelete
  15. Early guess, now the transfer window is closed.

    01. Chelsea
    02. Man U
    03. Arsenal
    04. Tottenham
    05. Liverpool
    06. Man City
    07. Stoke
    08. Everton
    09. Aston Villa
    10. Fulham
    11. Newcastle
    12. Blackburn
    13. Wigan
    14. Birmingham
    15. Sunderland
    16. Bolton
    17. Wolves
    18. West Brom
    19. West Ham
    20. Blackpool

    Cuuumme on ya Potters

    ReplyDelete
  16. 01. Chelsea
    02. Man U
    03. Arsenal
    04. Liverpool
    05. Man City
    06. Tottenham
    07. Aston Villa
    08. Birmingham
    09. Fulham
    10. Everton
    11. Newcastle
    12. Bolton
    13. Sunderland
    14. West Ham
    15. Wigan
    16. Blackburn
    17. Wolves
    18. Stoke
    19. West Brom
    20. Blackpool

    ReplyDelete
  17. 1. Man U
    2. Chelsea
    3. Man City
    4. Arsenal
    5. Tottenham
    6. Everton
    7. Liverpool
    8. Aston Villa
    9. Birmingham
    10. Newcastle
    11. Fulham
    12. Bolton
    13. Sunderland
    14. Stoke
    15. Blackburn
    16. Wolves
    17. Blackpool
    18. West Brom
    19. West Ham
    20. Wigan

    ReplyDelete
  18. 01. Chelsea
    02. Man City
    03. Arsenal
    04. Man Utd
    05. Tottenham
    06. Liverpool
    07. Everton
    08. Newcastle
    09. Birmingham
    10. Sunderland
    11. Fulham
    12. Aston Villa
    13. Stoke
    14. Blackburn
    15. Bolton
    16. West Brom
    17. West Ham
    18. Wigan
    19. Wolves
    20. Blackpool

    P.S. GO CHELSEA!

    ReplyDelete
  19. 01. Chelsea
    02. Man Utd
    03. Man City
    04. Arsenal
    05. Tottenham
    06. Liverpool
    07. Aston Villa
    08. Everton
    09. Bolton
    10. Birmingham
    11. Fulham
    12. Newcastle
    13. West Brom
    14. Sunderland
    15. Wigan
    16. Wolves
    17. West Ham
    18. Stoke
    19. Blackburn
    20. Blackpool

    ReplyDelete
  20. 1 Chelsea
    2 Man United
    3 Man City
    4 Arsenal
    5 Aston Villa
    6 Newcastle
    7 Tottenham
    8 Bolton
    9 Liverpool
    10 Sunderland
    11 Birmingham
    12 Everton
    13 Fulham
    14 Wolves
    15 West Ham
    16 Blackburn
    17 Stoke
    18 Wigan
    19 Blackpool
    20 West Brom

    ReplyDelete
  21. 01. Arsenal
    02. Chelsea
    03. Man City
    04. Man Utd
    05. Tottenham
    06. Everton
    07. Aston Villa
    08. Liverpool
    09. Newcastle
    10. Birmingham
    11. Fulham
    12. Sunderland
    13. Bolton
    14. Stoke
    15. West Ham
    16. Wolves
    17. Blackburn
    18. West Brom
    19. Blackpool
    20. Wigan

    ReplyDelete
  22. 01. Chelsea
    02. Arsenal
    03. Tottenham
    04. Man Utd
    05. Man City
    06. Everton
    07. Liverpool
    08. Birmingham
    09. Aston Villa
    10. Newcastle
    11. Fulham
    12. West Ham
    13. Bolton
    14. Blackpool
    15. Sunderland
    16. Wigan
    17. Blackburn
    18. West Brom
    19. Stoke
    20. Wolves

    ReplyDelete
  23. If the fact that Man City spent the most money meant they would win the title I would be one very happy supporter. But alas, money in this case appears to mean little. Goodbye Bellamy and Ireland! I will miss you.

    01. Chelsea
    02. Man Utd
    03. Liverpool
    04. Tottenham
    05. Arsenal
    06. Aston Villa
    07. Everton
    08. Man City
    09. Newcastle
    10. Birmingham
    11. Fulham
    12. Sunderland
    13. Bolton
    14. West Ham
    15. Blackpool
    16. Blackburn
    17. West Brom
    18. Wigan
    19. Stoke
    20. Wolves

    ReplyDelete
  24. 01. Chelsea
    02. Man Utd
    03. Man City
    04. Tottenham
    05. Aston Villa
    06. Arsenal
    07. Liverpool
    08. Everton
    09. Fulham
    10. Newcastle
    11. Bolton
    12. Birmingham
    13. Blackburn
    14. Sunderland
    15. Stoke
    16. Blackpool
    17. Wolves
    18. West Ham
    19. West Brom
    20. Wigan

    ReplyDelete
  25. 1. Chelsea
    2. Manchester United
    3. Arsenal
    4. Liverpool
    5. Tottenham
    6. Aston Villa
    7. Everton
    8. Manchester City
    9. Bolton
    10. Wigan
    11. Fulham
    12. Stoke
    13. West Ham
    14. Sunderland
    15. Newcastle
    16. Blackburn
    17. West Brom
    18. Birmingham
    19. Blackpool
    20. Wolves

    ReplyDelete